Oubliette!

Greetings, friends, from 1993.

This card is now so far off of the color-pie that it's effectively on the Reserved list (it's not actually).  It's essentially a bad Journey to Nowhere, which is an extremely versatile and potent effect.  Black is not allowed to do this as an enchantment, the closest card is Unmake (an instant).  Unmake doesn't allow for the potential re-triggering shenanigans that destroying Oubliette makes possible, however (something Black loves to do).  This is an odd duck, and it's no slacker. 

This was a common in Arabian Nights, back in 1993.  With the '93/'94 format frothing the price landscape for the oldest magic cards, this is soon to burst.  It's a common, after all, so supply is considerably higher than some other recent old-card price-spikes, but expect something significant within a week or two, at least a doubling-up.  

As I mentioned, these are not on the Reserved list.  But they are so color-wonky that their reprinting may be limited to supplemental product.  They are not going to crash in price unless '93/'94 peeters out (no signs of that yet).  For precedent, consider Maze of Ith's reprinting in FTV: Realms.  Price was halved, but it's already on its way back after a couple years.  Not a good thing to happen if you speculate on Oubliette, but survivable (especially if we're about to double-up).

These are still plentiful (as of publication) at $15 for played copies.  I would not be surprised if this spikes to $50 within a couple weeks, then lands around $30 in 3-6 months.  Near Mint copies are worth a $5-$10 premium right now, as that will translate into $25 premium post-spike (this is true generally, for very old cards).

This has been on my radar since last Fall.  Now is the time to strike:

I think it's worth the time to break down the recent price history, as best I can surmise from the data above:

1) March, 2014:  after seeing casual demand for many months, first buyout

2) May, 2014:  seeing the nature of this card, the popularity of the new '93/'94 format, we get two half-hearted buyout-style bumps: it's way premature.

3) September, 2014:  same deal as May, but the buyout sticks far better here, for a while.  The price collapses back down to about $10, mostly astroturf that got the attention of players who do want these to play with, but haven't bothered. 

4) January - June, 2015: Casual demand presses the envelope upwards, de-slackens supply, the $10 price-point is firmly established, and temporarily bubbles over during Spring, is brought to a rattling $10 come summertime.

5) Jan, 2016:  Mix of Causual demand and Speculation pressure drives price up sinusoidally up to $15.00.  We are concave-up right now.  The market is extremely taut right now, I could find NOTHING below $13, even beat-up copies.  This is the confluence of the two sources of demand, we are going to see major movement shortly.

 

Mortals,

Urza

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