Ring of Three Wishes, Price Bubbles, Fractals!

This is just a hugely powerful card with a casting and activation cost to match.  But in Commander, where games can run hours, and mana can be copious, this will appeal to a lot of players.  It has only a single printing (M14), no promos.  Colorless tutors are very rare.

Because this is first printing, foils are extra enticing.  This is also a shoe-in for a reprint in a Commander product some time down the line, so foils are the way to go for this reason, too.  

The foil:nonfoil price ratio for recent mythic rares (that aren't legendary creatures) is rarely much above 1.75 to 1, and it's also rarely lower than that for single-foil printings.   So 1.75 : 1 is a reasonable, maybe even conservative, foil:nonfoil ratio for this card, in equilibrium.  The current ratio is currently about 1.1 : 1.  The graph doesn't do justice to the percentage different between foils and non-foils because the vertical axis stars at $1.00, not $0.00.

Buy FOILS as a medium to long-term hold.   Trade for non-foils, or buy anything under $2.00.  I see them FOILS hitting $20.00 within 18 months on Commander demand, and a big chunk of that jump could happen after the Commander buzz in November.

For some theory discussion, see below the graph.

In looking at that graphic, I make the general conclusion that because bubbles (the dark purple patches) seem to exhibit a greater variance in value from day to day, there is more play in prices (i.e. supply and demand are both less rigid) and you get more price variance.  The first bubble may be considerbaly shallower than shown, in part evidenced by  The small-scale jittering on top of the bubbles tell us the location, and maybe even something about the depth, of the bubbles.  That is, if the jittering is significant, and the local behavior is concave-down, this can suggest an alterate measure for the radius of curvature of the bubble itself.  That is, in addition to the numerically-derived measure of concavity (acceleration), we can measure the intensity of jittering to estimate the acceleration of the price locally on the bubble, and thereby the depth of the bubble, and thereby the 'true' price. 

Take a look at the "sinkhole" below that occurs on the second "bubble".  The short-term forces on the bubbles (purple shaded regions) are downwards (concave-down), with an upwards trending minimum price (the pink line).  The bubbles... well, they inflate and can be deflated, but the minimum price is rarely a held up by a bubble.  In the sinkhole region, the bubble partially collapses for a couple weeks.  The depth and radius of curvature of this sinkhole might hold a clue to the depth of the bubble it's sitting in, which tells one the 'real' price at that moment.  It seems as though the labeled sinkhole was a precursor for the collapse of a similar magnitude that occured just weeks later, and that was more lasting (again: in relation to the moving baseline price).  Around the time the foil price (yellow in the graph) spiked, you can see that the non-foil price is concave up, and tried to spike, but instead entered another concave up feature.  I think that upward force that was not evidenced in a spike cause the baseline to CHANGE SLOPE upwards.  Time will tell.  

I am reminded, in looking at these data, of fractals.  The concave-up section that occurs around the release of Fate Reforged may well be geometrically similar to a larger structure still unfolding in its price history.  Development of such a correlation could hold predictive power.  I'll keep an eye out!  

This whole subject is closely tied to "price snapping", which is still awaiting a full article from The Speculator.  Stay tuned for an honest-to-goodness theory post soon.

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All charts courtesy of mtgstocks.com.